Sunday, September 5, 2010

Reactionary trading, conflicting information result in industry unpredictability

Tuesday early morning the stock market surged on marginally good consumer confidence data. A few hours later, when the Federal Reserve’s minutes were released, the stock marketplace dove. Wednesday marketplaces shot up again on news of gains in U.S. and Chinese manufacturing. However once the Labor Department turns lose its jobs report on Friday, many expect the wall street to resume its slide. The rollercoaster ride brought a fitting end to the worst August for the stock market since 2001. A key market indicator watched closely by traders called the Industry Unpredictability Directory, VIX, or “fear directory,” rose to almost 11 percent as well-its widest August gain in nearly 10 years.

How the fear catalog defines volatility

When the markets closed Monday the VIX was at 27.21. It fell Tuesday. When the markets closed it had dropped 4.2 percent to 24.55. On Wednesday, the VIX rose 4.8 percent to 28.77. An investigation on the current state of the VIX by MarketWatch said that traders gauge investors’ dread with the metric since the number grows along with marketplace uncertainty. The rise of the worry directory matched the fall of the wall street as August progressed to its dismal end. To cause traders to run for the exits, the VIX, according to the Wall Street Journal, will have to skyrocket instead of just fluctuate wildly. The fear index topped 80 after Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008.Throughout the stock market “flash crash” in May, it shot past 40.

Marketplace blows within the wind

The Fed revealed it knows not where the United States of America economy is bound or precisely what actions will influence its direction. U.S. blue-chip stocks responded in kind, falling to put the finishing touch on the worst August for stocks since 2001. Yet stocks resumed climbing Wednesday, the Associated Press reports. Reports showing robust gains in U.S. and Chinese manufacturing surprised every person and generated optimism about economic recovery worldwide. By sending stocks downward through August, traders were betting that weak United States of America economic growth will dent corporate earnings. On the flip side, expanding economies in foreign countries will benefit numerous major United States of America corporations that conduct business internationally.

Unpredictability catches analysts off-guard

After the market’s August swoon, The NY Times reports that Wednesday’s rebound caught experts off-guard. Stephen J. Carl, head equity trader at the Williams Capital Group, told the Times that he assumed the week heading into Labor Day would be quiet. Traders pay close attention to a manufacturing directory from the Institute of Supply Management. The directory defied predictions by increasing from 55.5 in July to 56.3 in August. A less impressive figure of 53. was forecasted by Thomson Reuters in its survey of economists. Carl said numbers such as those aren’t expected to be regarded as good and that he was “perplexed” by the truth that they were. Yet data on the horizon portends a reality check. Traders are bracing themselves for Friday’s report on unemployment. The Labor Department jobs report is expected to show the loss of another 100,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 9.6 percent. The VIX is expected to respond ! in kind.

More on this topic

MarketWatch

marketwatch.com/story/vix-notches-biggest-august-rise-in-over-a-decade-2010-08-31?dist=afterbell

Wall Street Journal

online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100825-709386.html

Associated Press

google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jmT59dgLTTziX4p9X9MRBRpWZGdQD9HV60602

New York Times

nytimes.com/2010/09/02/business/02markets.html?partner=rss and emc=rss



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